Land-Use Scenarios and Assessment of the Potential for Natural CO₂ Absorption in Belgium

Belgium aims to become climate-neutral by 2050. Land use plays a crucial and complex role in this. Forests, agricultural land and wetlands can absorb CO₂ but are simultaneously under pressure from a variety of policy objectives and regional differences. That is why we need to understand how land use might evolve and how much natural CO₂ absorption is realistically achievable.

This project develops future scenarios that demonstrate how different choices in agriculture, forestry and nature conservation affect Belgium’s carbon budget. By analysing historical trends and modelling new scenarios in collaboration with federal and regional stakeholders, it becomes clear how positive and negative CO₂ fluxes may change in the run-up to 2050. This creates a scientifically sound basis for better aligning climate and spatial policies.

VITO is leading the study and providing the land-use models that form the core of these scenarios. Drawing on its expertise in LULUCF methodology and model development, VITO combines data from agriculture, forests and peatlands to create a single, coherent picture of the future carbon balance. This helps policymakers make informed decisions that contribute to a climate-neutral Belgium.